SUMMARY

The Business Standard article states that analysts predict Brent crude oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel, a 103% increase from current levels, if Israel-Iran tensions escalate, triggering panic buying.

Key points 

1. Conflict Impact: Israel's recent strikes on Iran's nuclear and military facilities, including Tehran’s main gas depot and central oil refinery, have heightened fears of a broader Middle East conflict, potentially disrupting oil supplies. Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes on Israel, killing at least 10 people, further escalate tensions.
2. Market Reaction: Brent crude prices spiked nearly 13% on June 13, 2025, briefly nearing $80 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose to $72.98. Analysts warn prices could climb to $90 or higher if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz or if regional producers are drawn into the conflict.
3. Supply Risks: Iran produces 3.25 million barrels per day (b/d), with exports around 1.5 million b/d, mostly to China. A disruption could tighten global markets, with Goldman Sachs estimating a temporary loss of 1.75 million b/d of Iranian supply.
4. Containment Scenario: If the conflict remains limited, energy markets may stabilize quickly, but escalation targeting energy infrastructure could lead to severe supply disruptions, especially if Iran targets regional facilities or blocks the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for 20% of global oil flows.
5. Indian Context: India, reliant on imported oil, faces risks from rising prices, though Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri assured sufficient energy reserves for the coming months, with Russia as the top crude supplier and Qatar for LNG.

The article notes that while immediate price spikes have partially reversed, the risk of further escalation keeps markets on edge, with potential economic ripple effects globally and in India.

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